对外直接投资对出口的影响:来自中国的经验证明

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论文字数:28998 论文编号:sb2021092809285238397 日期:2021-10-30 来源:硕博论文网
本研究表明,对外直接投资对一个国家的出口绩效有着积极的影响,对外直接投资对一个国家的出口绩效起着推动作用。中国的贸易特征是对外直接投资,这是出口维持和出口政策,对外直接投资依赖于出口,我们的结果显示了中国对外直接投资对出口的依赖,这解释了出口对中国对外直接投资的重要性,简言之,我们可以说出口是中国对外直接投资的驱动力,此外,对外销售由出口支持型对外直接投资支持,出口支持型对外直接投资在东道国的收入水平上也发挥着至关重要的作用。

Chapter1: Introduction

1.1 Background
When China came into being and during coming years China‟s economic development was  slow  but  after  Chinese  economic  reforms  and  its  openness  to  the  world  has changed  the  fate  of  China  economic  development  and  there  was  seen  rapid  increase since 1978. In the start of 1980s, there are very less scope for the outward FDI, which was  based  on  few  sectors  like  Transport  services,  Engineering,  Catering  services  and financial  insurance  but  after  1984  there  was  seen  huge  developments  and  the investments abroad increased by the Chinese government and later in 1987. Hong Kong alone became their largest investor with amount of 10 billion US$.
History is the best alternative to analyze any issue, the same in the case of China history will  play  its  role  of  analyzing  where  the  current  issue  has  made  Chinese  exports,  the history of Chinese OFDI policies and its export will help us know the essentials. 
As we look from the start when in 2000s when the China‟s direct investment started so it  was  annually  below  dollar  3  billion  before  2005,  but  before  2006  it  was  dollar  20 billion  and  by  2008  it  was  dollar  50  billion.  By  December  2011  China‟s  total  global outward Foreign Direct Investment (OFDI) stock was at dollar 365 billion and this all investment  in  start  was  in  developing  countries  and  resource  wealthy  developed countries  for  instance  Canada  and  Australia  and  there  were  very  less  investments  and most  advanced  economies  till  2008.  We  cannot  close  our  eyes  that  there  is  very  tiny share for China in USA but the trend is going on. There was an assessment that Chinese firms are operating in 37 of 50 states in US industries. 
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1.2Aims and objective of the study
After explaining background and by explaining the Chinese OFDI developments, we can now easily know our aims of this thesis, we can easily draw a line that how Chinese OFDI impact exports or why they are not doing well, by this thesis we will try to answer these questions, how OFDI‟s are impacting on the export quality of the country, which link does OFDI impact export and if OFDI are weak so how can they become strong enough which can positively impact the exports of China. 
As deeply explained above with giving such example that countries with strong OFDI have been seen in increasing exports and countries which have weak OFDI have very less exports, , in this instance China is taken as the study, to know that how much important OFDI is for the export performance as China‟s export is quite low since long. So the study has the following objectives: 
1.  To collect, investigate and compare the evidence for Outward Foreign Direct Investment contributes to exports in China?
2.  To explore what is the impact of OFDI on exports of China?
3.  To propose suitable policy implications for the enhancement and efficient use of OFDI in the exports of China. 
Figure 1:  Estimates of China’s Annual FDI Inflows and Outflows: 2005-2018 ($ billions)
Figure 1:  Estimates of China’s Annual FDI Inflows and Outflows: 2005-2018 ($ billions) 
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Chapter 2: Literature Review

2.1 Export Platform Outward Foreign Direct Investment:
There  is  another  phenomena  known  as  „Platform  OFDI‟,  in  which  the  worldwide production and the splitting of labor, which helps original enterprise to make links in the country they are investing and the final good are exported to the third country, this phenomena is used in this regard(Ekholm, 2007)
The platform OFDI plays a very important role three dimensional effect, with respect to traditional OFDI which are more into the local markets or the original country but platform  OFDI  more  specifically  defines  the  OFDI  activities  and  strategies  more soundly and in affective way, (Neary, 2002),(Yeaple, 2003), (Ekholm, 2007)supports the  platform  FDI.Platform  FDI  via  trade  off  helps  host  country  in  less  production cost, FDI and trade costs, different literature have concluded the behavior of platform FDI in this sense(Hanson G. R., 2005).
According to a literature it depends on the region to region which has concluded that export Platform FDI has a negative effect among the FDI of one specific area and the other  regions  around,  though  National  Economic  Geography  stresses  the  export platform which is produced by the third party or country has also effect, which unite the  different  causes  of  heterogeneity  and  it  goes  into  critical  structure of  economics and that has strong impact on the OFDI certainly (Blonigen B. R., 2007)
Though  due  to  high  cost  of  international  shipping,  duties  and  several  other  factors, there is problem for export firms but as the fixed rate is fixed of these factors so the situation  becomes  suitable  for  the  domestic  markets,  creating  industries  on  foreign land  is  very  expensive  but  the  marginal  rate  is  not  high  which  is  helpful  for  the market insistence (Buckley P. J., 1981).
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2.2 Chinese Outward FDI- (special features & characteristics)
If  we  talk  specifically  about  activities  related  to  Chinese  investment  so  they  are  as same  as  are  of  developing  countries  but  there  is  different  in  standard  model  of  FDI which  is  of  the  countries  which  are  emerging(Holt,  2008)(Buckley  P.  J.,  2008),  all most  of  the  researchers  are  attracted  to  the  flow  of  FDI  from  emerging economies(Child,  2005)(Miller,  2008),(LUO,  2007).  The  FDI  activities  from  the developed countries are in a way that they may take full advantage of ownership but if we talk about the activities from developing countries, so they are not in that way that they may take full advantage of the assets or from the ownership and same is the case with Chinese investment firms (Athreye, 2009). 
The  Chinese  FDI  consists  of  three  features,  which  are  capital  market  limitations, precise  ownership  compensations  and  institutional  features,  these  features  are conflicting  to  the  FDI  theories  and  the  theories  from  the  countries  which  are developing economies(Buckley P. J., 2007).
Chinese investment is being affected by the resources market deficiencies in different directions, though in China the government is controlling the banking system, due to which  state  owned  firms  are  able  to  get  funds  easily  plus  with  low  market price(Warner,  2004).  Risky  short  interest  loans  and  subsidies  for  the  investors  are likely to be facilitated by the inefficient banking system, due to the local government and central government pressure party(Child, 2005).
As  there  are  different  advantages  including  ownership  advantage  for  the  Chinese firms  in  developing  countries  respectively,  which  can  witness  more  experience  of Chinese  firms  in  the  developing  countries,  this  experience  have  added  more  into Chinese firms to perform into more intense grounds like corruption, poor institutions and  etc.,  but  still  they  can  perform  well  and  are  more  successful  in  developing countries if compare to the western firms(Kolstad, 2012).
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CHAPTER 3: THE DESCRIPTIVE ANALYSIS OF CHINESE OFDI AND EXPORTS....................................... 24
3.1 AN OVERVIEW: ............................. 24
3.2 OFDI AND CHINA’S EXPORT PERFORMANCE .............................. 25
3.3OFDI AND EXPORTS TO OECD COUNTRIES IN PARTICULAR ............................. 27
CHAPTER 4: RESEARCH METHODOLOGY .......................... 32
4.1DATA SOURCES COLLECTION ........................... 32
4.2MODEL .................................... 32
4.3TECHNIQUES ................................ 33
CHAPTER 5: RESULTS AND DISCUSSION ...................... 36

Chapter 5: Results and Discussion

In  this  section  we  will  analyze  the  results  we  attained  from  later  tests  will  describe and  explain  the  empirical  findings,  how  those  tests  were  done  and  what  tests  were used to analyze the data is already discussed in Chapter 4. The order of the tables will be  according  to  the  tests  applied  to  the  data.  To  recognize  if  the  variables  are stationary  or  not,  we  applied  root  unit  tests  to  obtain  the  results,  the  Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test, and the Phillips-Perron Unit root test were used to obtain the required results.
Table 5.1 shows the results of unit root. The entire test, e.g. ADF, PP indicate that the underlying  variables  of  the  study  are  integrated  of  I  (1),  I  (0)  and  mix  of  the  both. Therefore, it allows us to apply ARDL methodology. 
Table 5.1: The ADF and Phillips-Perron Unit Root Test Results
Table 5.1: The ADF and Phillips-Perron Unit Root Test Results 
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Chapter 6: Conclusion


This  thesis  is  presenting  the  detailed  study  of  the  impact  of  OFDI  on  exports empirical evidence from China, in which ARDL model and time series data are used, different literatures has been studied to know the realities and to get points of most of the researchers in different perspectives.
The  variables  were  taken  such  as  exports  which  are  dependent  variable,  Outward Foreign  Direct  Investment  (OFDI),  Exchange  Rate  (ER),  Human  Capital  (HC), Domestic  Investment  (DI)  and  Import  (IMP)  are  independent  variables,  and  these variables have been taken to know the collision of OFDI on export performance of a country.
The study has witnessed that OFDI has positive influence on the export performance of a nation, OFDI are playing the role of driving force for the export betterment of a country. The China‟s trade features are OFDI, which is export  sustaining and export policy and the OFDI dependency on the exports, the dependency of China‟s OFDI on exports  is  shown  in  our  results  which  explains  the  importance  of  exports  for  the China‟s OFDI, which in simple words we can say that exports are driving force for the  China‟s  OFDI,  furthermore  the  foreign  sales  are  supported  by  the  export supporting OFDI, export supporting OFDI is also playing an essential role in the host countries with respect to levels of income.
To increase home capital for exports, by transferring technology and new products for exports,  by  smoothening  ways  for  new  and  big  foreign  markets,  by  giving  updated training,  technical  and  management  skills  to  the  locals.  Though  there  has  been witnessed a positive impact but there are different suggestions also given with respect to FDI which are (a) there should  be  home savings and  investments, (b) not to shift those technologies which are not suitable  in any  way  for the host country, (c) not to target only host country‟s host market as well as not to increase exports, (d) not to expand those firms which are able to become exporters later, (e) not to help the host countries which have all the focus on the cheap labor and raw materials. 
reference(omitted)


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