对外贸易对老挝经济增长的影响探讨

论文价格:300元/篇 论文用途:硕士毕业论文 Master Thesis 编辑:硕博论文网 点击次数:
论文字数:32566 论文编号:sb2021102019122938948 日期:2021-11-27 来源:硕博论文网
本文是一篇国际贸易论文,本研究使用时间序列数据对相关数据进行回归测试,作为其分析方法的一部分。自1986年老挝对外贸易和投资开放以来,政府的政策一直是外向型的。运用协整分析和格兰杰因果检验对老挝对外贸易与经济增长的理论关系以及老挝对外贸易发展现状进行了实证分析。这些测试表明,从长期来看,老挝的总贸易额、进出口额都与老挝的GDP呈正相关。老挝的贸易总额影响最大;从长期来看,出口对GDP的影响大于进口。
 
CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background of the study
Laos introduced reforms on economic institutions in 1986, which was closely followed by a comprehensive opening policy, forming the present economic institutions: coexistence of diverse economic sectors based on public ownership of the means of production; prices set  by  the  market;  more  pay  for  more  work,  reward  for  diligence  and  punishment  for indolence; rational distribution and redistribution of all incomes. A rudimentary system of market economy has been set up in Laos with management model conducive to economic development.  The  rapid  growth  in  national  economy  and  the  rise  in  living  standard  and incomes produced favorable macroeconomic conditions for attracting foreign investment. Lao is the one of ASEAN countries, there was the value of total trade parallel to 6.9$ billions, total exports accounted for 2.2 $ billions (Trade Map, 2014), alongside of last year increased 11.67 percent. In addition, ASEAN countries still have encountered with high transport cost, in a particular Laos, the trouble of geographical location, the problem of scarce labors and resources  in  various  industrial-agricultural  sectors,  unskilled  labor  and  specialization  in productions, these are caused of transferring labors from low wage to high wage, patterns of IIT in each country are differentiated size of each category, owing to some country have only exports, imports, and some country are included exports and imports, of similar and diverse  categories.  Otherwise,  each  country  has  dissimilar  specialization,  preferences, technology level, accessing to resources and factor endowments. Furthermore, IIT of Laos and  trading  partners  has  still  demonstrated  the  comparative  advantage,  productive specializations,  and  state-of-the-art  technologies  throughout  capital  and  labor  incentive goods  of  international  productions,  in  order  to  enhance  the  competitive  capacity  of  the similar  and  distinct  goods  production  in  trade  bloc  and  other  regions,  in  a  particular  to measure a country’s competitive capacity alongside of exterior as well as various trading partners in the world.
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1.2 Significant of the research.
The  effects  of  foreign  trade on  Lao’s  economic  Growth and aid  in  development  of appropriate strategies that will ensure they stay competitive. This will help in improving their performance in form of market penetration and returns. The study will aid Government and  government  institutions  dealing  with  imports  and  exports,  in  policy  formulation  to improve the Laos’ imports and exports. To researchers and academicians, this research will provide an understanding of the effects of foreign trade on Lao’s economic Growth. This will be vital for future reference and will contribute to the available body of knowledge. This study aims to examine the impact of Foreign trade on several economic development indicators in the context of Laos. The study is important to help Laos enjoy further economic development  as  well  as  contributes  to  the  literature  of  FDI  and  economic  growth  in  the context of developing countries. 
Since the reform and opening up, the Lao government has constantly introduced new laws and regulations to improve the domestic law legal system, strengthen economic and trade ties, and cooperation with foreign countries. As an important leader of the neighboring countries and also the largest developing country in the world, Laos attaches importance to trade relations with China and constantly strengthens trade contacts and contacts. In recent years, the scale of trade between Laos and China has been increasing and the trade ties have become  more  and  more.  In  particular,  China's  investment  in  Laos,  technology  imports, advanced equipment exports, so that the necessary factors for Laos' economic development continue to improve, the domestic economic growth rate sustained and stable. This fully shows that the trade between foreign trade in  Laos has accelerated the development of the Lao economy to a certain extent, which is very important to study the impact of foreign trade on Laos economic growth. 
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CHAPTER TWO THE RELATIVE THEORY AND THE MECHANISM OF FOREIGN TRADE PROMOTING ECONOMIC GROWTH.

2.1 The relative Theory
2.1.1  Theoretical review
Since  the  implementation  of  Laos’s  economic  reforms  in  1986,  its  government  has issued  a  series  of  strategies  relating  to  the  economic  development  of  the  country,  set  up  a macroeconomic  regulation  and  control  decision  system,  and  emulated  the  development direction of the industrialized countries. It has established a reasonable economic development model and structure and promoted the development of social economy and culture. The policies and plans of government have been funneled into concrete and feasible initiatives, focusing on the  implementation  of  projects  such  as  commodity  production,  service  industry  and  poverty alleviation, maintaining social stability, and protecting ecological security and environmental quality (Phimphanthavong, 2012).
The government has mainly based its reform of the foreign trade system based on the principle of governmental separation, integration of industry and trade, foreign trade agency, and the integration of import and export. It has partially opened the right of trade and operation, and  trading  companies  operate  according  to  the  principle  of  independent  reform.  It  has  also adopted  policies  relaxing  foreign  exchange  controls,  implementing  export  tax  rebates,  and giving  full  play  to  market  mechanisms,  so  as  to  create  a  favorable  and  effective  external environment for foreign trade enterprises to operate independently. 
Both  import  and  export  have  generally  maintained  sustained  growth  since  the implementation  of  economic  reform  Due  to  the  weak  industrial  foundation  and  shortage  of funds in Laos, coupled with the influence of the world economic environment, the growth rate of foreign trade slowed for some previous years, but has maintained relatively stable growth for the past two years.
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2.2 The Mechanism of foreign trade Promoting Economic Growth
2.2.1  Resource allocation to optimize economic growth 
Lao  PDR  has  made  good  development  progress  over  the  past  twenty  years,  halving poverty, reducing malnutrition and improving education and health outcomes. The 8th National Socio-Economic  Development  Plan  2016–2020 outlines the Lao government’s program for further reducing poverty and boosting prosperity in the country. The plan proposes reforms that support  greener,  more  inclusive  growth,  recognizing  the  limitations  of  a  growth  model  that relies on natural resources and places increasing pressure on the environment. The green growth agenda aims to improve local livelihoods by diversifying income sources and encouraging the private sector to spur market development, for instance through sustainable forest management and nature-based tourism. To reduce extreme poverty and boost shared prosperity, supporting National  Socio-Economic  Development  Plan.  Focus  areas  include:  Supporting  Inclusive Growth: Putting public finances on a sustainable path and supporting financial sector stability, making  it  easier  to  do  business,  and  investing  in  infrastructure  for  growth  and  inclusion. Investing in People: Reducing malnutrition, improving the quality of primary and pre-primary education, keeping girls in school, improving access to and quality of health services, reducing vulnerability,  and  boosting  inclusive  access  to  social  services.  Protecting  the  Environment: Promoting environmental protection and sustainable natural resource management, enhancing disaster risk management and climate and disaster resilience. Cross-cutting theme: Enhancing governance and creating a rules based environment. 
Table 3.1: Value of Imports and Exports and Balance of Trade 1988-2019 (USD million)
Table 3.1: Value of Imports and Exports and Balance of Trade 1988-2019 (USD million) 
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CHAPTER 3 AN OVERVIEW OF FOREIGN TRADE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN LAOS ................................................. 16
3.1 An Overview of Foreign Trade in Laos  ..................................... 16
3.1.1 The Major Policy of Foreign Trade in Laos ................................ 16
3.1.1.1 Trade Policy Before Economic reform(1975-1985) ..................................... 16 
CHAPTER 4 THE EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF FOREIGN TRADE ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN LAOS  .................................... 29
4.1 The Model and Description of Variables ............................... 29
4.2 The Results of Empirical Analysis ............................................. 30
CHAPTER 5 CONCLUSIONS AND  RECOMMENDATIONS  ............................... 38
5.1 Concluusions .............................. 38
5.2 Recommendations ....................................... 40 

CHAPTER FOUR THE EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF FOREIGN TRADE ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN LAO.

4.1 The model and description of variables
In  order  to  comprehensively  carry  on  the  relationship  between  foreign  trade  and  Laos economic growth, this paper will establish two models, the first model is the total import trade on Laos economic growth, the second is the total export trade on Laos economic growth, and foreign direct investment, the trade opening to the economic impact. According to the foreign trade on economic growth theory, in addition to the investment of capital, labor, and other basic factors  to  promote  Laos'  economic  development,  Economic  openness  can  also  enhance  the efficiency  of  factor  use,  therefore,  can  make  economic  development  input  factors  get  more effective production.
This study used times series data from 1988 to 2019, for a period of thirty-one years. The data needs were identified on the basis of the objectives of the study. The data for this study were derived  from the  Word Bank’s (WB), World Development Indicators (WDI) database, and United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) database.
Table 4.1: Variable definitions, measures and sources of data
Table 4.1: Variable definitions, measures and sources of data
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CHAPTER FIVE CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATION

5.1 Conclusions
This study took Laos as its research object and examined the relationship between Laos’s trade and economic growth through the lens of its foreign trade development history and trade policies both before and after economic reform. The adjustment of foreign trade policies following economic reform, as well as joining ASEAN, have had an important impact on the adjustment of Laos’s economic structure and level of economic development. This study used time series data to conduct regression tests on relevant data as part of its analytical approach. Since Laos opened  up  to  foreign  trade  and  investment  in  1986,  the  government’s  policies  have  been outward-looking. A cointegration analysis and Grainger causality tests were used to empirically analyze the theoretical relationship between foreign trade and economic growth, as well as the current situation of foreign trade development in Laos. These tests revealed that, in the long run, the total trade volume in Laos, export and import volume, are all positively related to the GDP of Laos. The total trade volume in Laos has greatest impact; in the long  -term, exports have a greater impact on GDP than imports. 
Through economic reform and opening up, Laos has gradually strengthened its foreign trade strategy  and  initially  achieved  the  short-term  goals  of  trade  facilitation  and  economic development. However, in the long run, the most important thing for Laos' foreign trade is to achieve  high-quality  economic  development.  On  this  basis,  it  is  necessary  to  optimize  the industrial  structure  and  improve  the  foreign  trade  structure  in  order  to  accelerate  the development of Laos. Upgrading the industrial structure of Laos and achieving industrialization as soon as possible, thus enhancing Laos's international competitiveness: We need to expand the  scope  of  trade,  Only  in  this  way  can  we  better  develop  foreign  trade  by  increasing  the openness of the market and improving the government's financial policy, expanding the model of foreign investment, developing modern education and increasing the investment in scientific research.  Increase the added value of products, expand the scale of foreign trade, ultimately better  promote  the  development  of  Lao  domestic  economy,  improve  the  living  standards  of people.
reference(omitted)