在全球价值链中提高中国肉类行业的附加值——基于CGE GTAP-VA方法

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论文字数:51455 论文编号:sb2021083010314237127 日期:2021-09-08 来源:硕博论文网
笔者建议以分析哪一水平的关税减让政策最适合进一步改善中国在肉类进口中的增值地位,并评估其在价值链中的地位,因为它涉及加工,这也将导致更高的增值收益。关于增加知识库,即肉类行业的技术,发现的结果与假设相反,即增加技术会增加附加值,因此需要进行更多的研究,以了解为什么这一政策变化会产生如此不利的结果。

Chapter 1: Introduction

1.1 Overview of the meat consumption, production, and trade
1.1.1 Meat consumption
The global average per capita meat consumption has increased with almost 20 kilograms since 1960, at a rate higher than the population growth. This increase in per capita meat consumption has been strongest in countries, which underwent a strong economic growth, for example China’s meat consumption has increased more than tenfold and Brazil’s nearly quadrupled. One clear exception is India where, mostly due to religious purposes, the meat consumption is close to stable even though the GDP per capita has increased. What has also  become  clear  from  the  FAO  meat  consumption  statistics  is  that  when  a  country  reaches  a  certain economic level their meat consumption levels are high but with limited changes and sometimes even slight decreases.
When  then  taking  a  closer  look  at  the  meat  preference,  it  became  clear  that  in  2013  the  average  person consumed around 16 kilograms of pork; followed by 15 kilograms of poultry; 9 kilograms of beef/buffalo meat; 2 kilograms of mutton & goat; and only a fraction of other meat types. Where China as in China pork consumption takes two-thirds of the share of its overall meat consumption. In the United States of America, beef/buffalo and poultry  dominate  their  meat  consumption.  In  addition,  in  New  Zeeland  there  is  a  much higher preference for mutton and goats meat. 
1.1.2 Meat production and trade
After giving an overview of the progress of meat consumptions and its evolution it is also of importance to shed light on the production of this commodity. When looking at the region meat production, Asia accounts for approximately 45 percent (mainly due to the production in China), whereas Europe and North America produce around the 19 and 15 percent, respectively. This is a big transition of where the production was in 1961.  At  that  time  Asia  sat  around  the  12  percent,  while  Europe  and  North  America  where  situated approximately at the 42 percent and 25 percent mark. This is not due to the fact that the European and North American production has been stagnant, both more than doubling, but because the Asian meat production has increased almost 15-fold since 1961. The biggest contributor to this staggering growth has long since been China, with approximately 92 million tons in 2018, that accounted for almost 27 percent of the world production (FAO, 2018).  
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1.2 Objective and leading questions
The overall objective is to investigate the domestic and foreign value added in the Chinese meat sector and make policy adjustment geared to increase China's value added for the meat industry within the global value chain.
1.2.1 Specific objectives
Taking the before mentioned as basis the following are the specific objectives:
1.  Analyze the current state of the meat industry worldwide.
2.  Analyze the current state of the meat research in China.
3.  Analyze the value added within the GVC of meat pertaining to China and its main exporters
4.  Make policy changes to improve China’s value added within the GVC of meat pertaining to China and its main exporters.
1.2.2 Key research questions
To fulfil these specific objectives, the research addresses these three following questions:
1.  What is the global production and trade in regards to the meat industry?
2.  How to analyze the value added within the meat industry?
3.  What is the meat value added within the GVC of pertaining to China and its main exporters?
4.  What policy changes can be implemented to improve China’s value added within the GVC of meat? 
Table 1: Value chain analysis accounting methods
Table 1: Value chain analysis accounting methods 
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CHAPTER 2: Literature Review

2.1 Global value chain theory
The term value chain refers both to a set of interdependent economic activities and to a group of vertically linked economic agents, depending on the scope of the study the focus of the analysis can be on the activities or  on  the  agents  (Bellù,  2013). As  time  has  progressed  the  basic  theory  and  concepts  surrounding  value chains was changed as a result of different influences and research (Kim & Shin, 2002). Thus leading to an increase in international fragmentation of value chains, which entails that different companies or enterprises in the same and other countries increasingly carry out the different parts of the chain. Two of the key factors behind this move is the availability of resources (inputs) and reductions in transaction costs.
The reduction in transaction cost refers to better integration in the market or better vertical integration. This globalization of the value chains has led to an increase in trade on inputs, intermediate goods, and final products (World Bank, 2017).  The basic principles of value chain analysis, where the main focus was on allocation of value chain activities, has enjoyed increasing interest because of the fast development of the reallocation different aspects of the value chain. In addition to the “standard” value chain, the integration of environmental factors in value chain analysis has also increased. This finds its basis in the fact that value chains use environmental resources for its economic activities and in agricultural production. Thus it can be stated that the environment provides basis for all essential inputs and energy as well the capacity to dispose emissions and waste (Fabe, Grote, & Winter, 2009). This has then resulted in more focus on the public interest, increased consumer perception, and environmental impact of products impacting environmental policy programs (Boons, 2002). 
The concept of value chains is now not only based in the field of economics but has diverged into a multi-disciplinary topic, thus resulting in many methods for analyzing value chains. These methods can be divided in two main categories: the first being a more descriptive and qualitative emphasis (Kaplinsky & Morris, 2000),  and  the  second  focusses  on  specialized  analytical  tools,  referring  to  modeling  and  simulations  of supply chains (Ondersteijn, Wijnands, Huirne, & Van Kooten, 2006; Thun, 2005). 
Figure 2: Smile curve
Figure 2: Smile curve

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2.2 Mapping the (Global) Value Chain
In analyzing the GVC, the first step is understanding how it’s connected. This refers to the mapping of the GVC. At the core it is to identify the actors and then to map the product flows within the chain including input supply, production, processing, and marketing activities (De Backer & Miroudot, 2012). This giving a representation of the identified actors and the related product flows. A mapped value chain includes the actors, their  relationships,  and  economic  activities  at  each  stage  with  the  related  physical  and  monetary  flows (Todeva  &  Rakhmatullin,  2016).  As  described  in  (Fabe  et  al.,  2009),  there  are  two  different  kinds  of approaches  used  for  mapping.  The  “Functional  and  Institutional  Analysis”  and  the  “Social  Network Analysis”. 
2.2.1 Functional and Institutional Analysis
The  FAO  provides  a  set  of  modules,  which  presents  a  systematic  approach  to  value  chain  analysis  for agricultural  commodities  (Fabe  et  al.,  2009).  The  mapping  is  denoted  as  a  functional  and  institutional analysis  (Bellù,  2013;  Bockel  &  Tallec,  2006)  which  starts  with  constructing  a  ‘preliminary  map’  of  a particular  chain  to  provide  an  overview  of  all  chain  stakeholders  (institutional  analysis)  and  the  type  of interaction between them (functional analysis). The results can be presented either in a table or in a flow chart.  The  FAO  methodology  includes  three  essential  aspects  for  developing  a  preliminary  map  (FAO 2005a): 
1.  The principal functions of each stage;
2.  The stakeholders carrying out these functions;
3.  The principal products in the chain and their various forms into which they are transformed along the entire chain.
Once the flow chart has been drawn, these flows are quantified, both in physical and monetary terms. The procedure allows assessing the relative importance of the different stages or segments of the chain. Kaplinsky and Morris (Kaplinsky et al., 2003) suggest similar procedures for implementing value chain analysis. Their concept consists of two steps in order to map the value chain of interest. The first step includes drawing an ‘initial map’, which shows the chain boundaries including the main actors, activities, connections and some initial  indicators  of  size  and  importance.  The  second  step  consists  of  elaborating  the  refined  map  by quantifying key variables such as value-added, and by identifying strategic and non-strategic activities. This refined map can be understood as a framework for showing chain statistics (McCormick & Schmitz, 2001).
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Chapter 3 Methodology: Analytical framework and Models .............................. 24
3.1 Methodology ...................................... 24
3.1.1 GTAP model and database ..................................... 24
3.1.2 GTAP_VA Model .................................... 25
Chapter 4: Results and Discussion ................................................... 32
4.1 Baseline simulation results .................................... 32
4.1.1 The bilateral exports’ domestic and foreign value added content .................................. 32
4.1.2 The direct or indirect domestic value added ................................ 34
Chapter 5: Conclusion ........................... 48

Chapter 4: Results and Discussion


4.1 Baseline simulation results
The following will shed light on the state of the value added of the regions that are the main exporters of meat to China, as described in chapter 3.2.1 The data and aggregations.   
4.1.1 The bilateral exports’ domestic and foreign value added content 
When  analyzing  the  DVA,  DDC,  and  FVA  of  Spain,  Brazil,  the  USA,  Australia,  and  Argentina  when exporting to China the following was found for: 
Spain: had a total value added of $14,698 million, whereas $11,259 million originates in Spain and $3,427  is  foreign  based  (DVA  77%,  FVA  23%).  The  double-counting  (DDC)  was  negligible  at 0.09%. Its biggest contributor is the Transportation and communications sector at 28% of the total VA. The meat sector (cmo), only added 3.2% ($471 million) to the total VA, with the DVA, DDC, and FVA respectively taking 78.8%, 0.1%, and 21.2% as seen in Figure 12: Spain’s VA exported to China (VADECOMP). 
 Brazil: $43,935 million out of $49,085 million of the total VA, accounted for the DVA. It follows that $5,133 million is the foreign value added provided by other countries. The double-counting component  –  i.e.,  the  value  of  Brazil’s  exports  that  had  already  been  exported,  imported  again, processed, and finally embedded in its exports to the China - amounts to $17 million (0.04%). The biggest sector adding to the total value added was the Extraction sector at 38%. The meat sector accounted for 5.18% of the TVA (total value added), with 93.5% DVA, 0.0% DDC, and 6.5% FVA. Illustrated in Figure 13: Brazil's VA exported to China (VADECOMP) 
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Chapter 5: Conclusio


China is the largest producer of meat in the world, but it has also been holding the first-place position in the import of meat, with approximately 9% of the global import value. However, in 2019 and 2020 there was a respective rise in meat imports of almost 71% and 175% compared to 2018. On the other hand, top five exporters to China have been Brazil, Spain, United States of America, Argentina, and Australia. Due to the rise in demand, the export value of meat has seen a yearly increase averaging around the 6% from 2016. With the top ten exporters accounting for a little over 65% of the world exports, and the United States of America leading the pack with approximately 13%, closely followed by Brazil (11%), where after Australia came in at third with 8%. 
The reason for the increase in China's imports of meat may be due to the high domestic demand for these goods, households going from lower to middle-income, meat goes from a luxury item to a “basic necessity”, or other conditions such as a decrease in production, if any, due to diseases or other reasons. For the basis of this research the consumption was further emphasized upon. China’s consumption has increased more than tenfold since 1961.To keep up with the local demand, China has then also grown to be the biggest producer of  meat.  Even  having  reached  those  high  production  levels,  it  is  still  the  biggest  importer  of  meat.  The question that then arose was what the level of the domestic and foreign value added is within the value of the imported meat. 
Thus, the purpose and overall objective of this research is to investigate the domestic and foreign value added in the Chinese meat sector and make policy adjustment geared to increase China's value added for the meat industry within the global value chain. Taking the before mentioned as basis, the following are the specific objectives: A) Analyze the current state of the meat industry worldwide, B) Analyze the current state of the meat research in China. C) Analyze the value added within the GVC of meat pertaining to China and its main exporters, and D) Make policy changes to improve China’s value added within the GVC of meat pertaining to  China  and its  main exporters. In  addition to  fulfilling these specific objectives, the  research  addresses these three following questions: “What is the global production and trade in regard to the meat industry?”, “How to analyze the value added within the meat industry?”, and “What is the meat value added within the GVC of pertaining to China and its main exporters?”
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