国外援助对喀麦隆经济增长的影响

论文价格:300元/篇 论文用途:硕士毕业论文 Master Thesis 编辑:硕博论文网 点击次数:
论文字数:28855 论文编号:sb2021110110085839369 日期:2021-11-28 来源:硕博论文网
本文是一篇经济论文,这项研究主要着眼于外国援助对喀麦隆经济增长的影响。通过背景研究,本文仔细、系统地考察了外援对任何国家经济增长的影响。使用向量自回归(VAR)模型。回顾现有文献,发现喀麦隆存在方法上的差距,因此作者试图用本文填补这一差距。该研究采用两缺口模型来回答研究问题:外援对喀麦隆经济增长的影响是什么。方法论方法运用了计量经济学;1970-2019年时间序列数据的平稳性检验、Johansen协整检验、VAR模型和VECM。

CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background of the study
Foreign  aid,  economic  growth  and  economic  development  are  burning  issues  confronting development  economists  and  researchers  today.  The  idea  of  foreign  aid  was  established following  the  outbreak  of  the  Great  depression  and  the  Second  World  War  in the 1930’s.  The largest  aid  package  in  history,  The  Marshal  Plan’’  was  received  by  the  Western  European countries  during  this  time,  which  helped  them  to  reconstruct  their  post  economies  after  the Second World War (Ali et. al 1999).
Upon  inception,  the  importance  of  aid  was  however  regarded  as  purely  for  relief  purposes and  was  meant  for  returning  nations  to  their  resilient  positions,  but  today,  this  has  extended  to include  other  antecedents  such  as:  diplomatic,  developmental,  commercial/improving  trade relationships and even cultural objectives. For example, France has been using aid to promote its culture in recipient nations- ‘promoting la Francophone’’ (Lancaster, 2007). 
Hence, the field of development Corporation is today, dominated by many multilateral and bilateral  actors  such  as  United  Kingdom,  Germany,  Sweden,  Norway,  Denmark  etc.  and  the European  Commission,  United  nation  agencies,  the  International  Development  Association (IDA) and the World Bank which is mostly seen in the form of Official Development Assistance (ODA). This will be further explained in chapter three. Newcomers such as China, Russia, India, South Africa, and Brazil are gaining popularity (OECD, 2015).
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1.2 Foreign aid in Cameroon
Over the years, Cameroon has received aid in the form of Official Development Assistance (ODA),  amounting  to  about  $105billion  from  France,  Japan,  USA  and  UNDP  with  about $63billion  from  France  only  (African  report  2021)  and  grants  adjustment  programs  to  NGOs from  governments  of  developing  countries.  International  aid  agencies,  the  World  Bank  and International Monetary Fund. The advent of the economic crisis of the mid 1980s and the series of  structural  adjustment  programs  spearheaded  by  the  IMF  led  to  a  drop  in  living  standards  of Cameroonians. The millennium development goals (MDGs) put in place by the United Nations (UN) in the early 2000 (health for all, education and an increase in life expectancy) came with an increase in flow of aid in Cameroon. 
By intuitions, one would say that aid is beneficial, as it presents an opportunity for countries to raise revenue that can enable them to generate a sustainable economic growth, reduce poverty and  increase  their  standards  of  living.  According  to  McG illivray  et  al.  (2006)  foreign  aid  can help fill the savings gap in many developing countries as their savings remain too low to provide sufficient capital to meet up with investment demand. It also helps to close the foreign exchange gap,  in  order  to  provide  them  with  export  earnings  required  to  import  capital  goods  for investment, since international transactions cannot be executed with local currencies not backed by international purchasing power. 
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CHAPTER TWO LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1 Conceptual Framework
2.1.1 Concept of Foreign Aid
Foreign  aid  also  known  as  international  Aid  or  overseas  Aid  is  a  voluntary  transfer  of resources from one country to another, given that at least partly the objectives of benefiting the recipient  country.  Aid  may  have  other  functions  such  as;  It  may  be  given  as  a  signal  of diplomatic approval, or to strengthen a military ally, to reward a government for behavior desired by  the  donor  to  extend  the  donors  cultural  influence,  to  provide  infrastructures  needed  by  the donor  for  resource  extraction  from  the  recipient  country  or  to  gain  other  kinds  of  commercial access,
Aid  may  be  given  by  individuals,  private  organizations  or  governments.  Standards delimiting exactly the kind of transfers that count as aid varies. For example, aid figure may or may not include transfer of military use.
The  most  widely  used  measure  of  foreign  aid  is  Official  Development  Assistance  (ODA). ODA  is  compiled  by  the  development  Assistance  committee  (DAC)  of  the  organization  for economic cooperation and development (OECD). The united nation uses the DACs ODA figures as their main aid figure because it is easily available, reasonable and consistently calculated over time and between countries. 
Fig 2.1: PPC illustrating Economic Growth of an Economy
Fig 2.1: PPC illustrating Economic Growth of an Economy
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2.2 Relative Theories
2.2.1 The Two Gaps Model
The empirical model for estimating the aid growth relationship in Cameroon will be the Two Gap  model,  based  on  its  explanation  power  in  relation  to  the  subject  under  investigation  being that  it  takes  into  consideration  the  functional  relationships  between  foreign  Aid  and  economic growth of a country. This is contrary to the neoclassical and post Keynesian models such as the Cobb-Douglass  production  function  and  the  Harrod  -Domar  growth  model  as  used  by  other researchers.
There  are  various  ways  through  which  the  foreign  aid  inflows  of  a  country  can  impact  its growth which can either be negatively or positively. For  an  economy  to  be  balanced  its  Y  (Income)  =  C  (Consumption)  +  (I)  Investment+  (G) Government  spending.  And  what  happens  for  some  of  these  LEDC’s  to  be  in  need  of  aid  is because most of those factors needed to be put in place to achieve a stable economic growth are not  present  hence  the  need  for  intervention  by  foreign  rich  countries.
The  following  factors enumerated  below  will  influence  those  macro-economic  variables  mentioned  above  directly  or indirectly  hence  resulting  to  a  negative  or  positive  impact  in  the  economic  growth  level  of  a nation.
It  was  propounded  by  Walt  Witman  Rostow.  The  model  postulates  that  economic  growth occurs in five stages that is for an economy to witness growth it must pass through five stages which are; the traditional society, pre-conditions for take- off, take- off, drive to maturity, high mass consumption. For an economy to achieve or get to a different stage there must be series of activities and initiatives that should be put in place for a country to reach its maximum potential and achieve growth. 
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CHAPTER THREE RESEARCH METHODOLOGY................................................. 18
3.1Description and Measurement of Variables ...................................... 19
3.2 Data Collection .................................. 19 
CHAPTER FOUR DATA ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION .......................................... 30
4.1 Descriptive statistics ................................................................ 30
4.2 Unit Root Testing .................................................. 31
CHAPTER FIVE SUMMARY, CONCLUSION AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS ....................... 37
5.1 Summary of the study.................................. 37
5.2 Conclusion ............................................... 37

CHAPTER FOUR DATA ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION

4.1 Descriptive statistics
This  chapter  presents  the  data  analysis  and  interpretation  of  the  results  to  answer  the research  question  and  test  the  hypotheses  stated.  The  data  undergoes  various  stages  of manipulation in order to ensure the selected model is quite applicable. First, the stationarity tests and co-integration tests are done on each variable.
Table 4.1: Descriptive statistics
Table 4.1: Descriptive statistics
From the table 4.1 above, the mean value of economic growth rate is 4.0102 with a standard deviation of 5.4941 while the minimum value is  -7.9321 and the maximum value is 22.003 for the study period. The mean value of foreign direct investment is 1.1307 with a standard deviation of  1.1519  while  the  minimum  value  is  -1.0118  and  the  maximum  value  is  4.3634.  The  mean value  of  domestic  savings  is  20.2569  with  a  standard  deviation  of  3.6202  while  the  minimum value  is  12.5073  and  the  maximum  value  is  29.5627.  The  mean  value  of  official  development assistance is 18.0400 with a standard deviation of 9.2381 while the minimum value is 6.6571 and maximum  value  is  43.8438.  And  lastly,  the  mean  value  of  population  growth  is  2.8075  with  a standard deviation of 0.1916 while the minimum value is 2.5267 and maximum value is 3.1772 for the period of study. 
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CHAPTER FIVE SUMMARY, CONCLUSION AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS

5.1 Summary of the study
This  chapter  summarizes  the  study  while  giving  conclusion  and  providing  policy recommendations.  The  results  of  the  econometric  analysis  and  the  theories  discussed  in  this paper are put together to provide a conclusion for the study. In addition, the chapter provides the limitations throughout. 
The  study  has  majorly  looked  at  the  impact  of  foreign  aid  on  the  economic  growth  of Cameroon.  Through  background  study,  the  paper  carefully  and  systematically  looked  at  how foreign aid affects the economic growth of any country. Using the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model.  Reviewing  the  existing  literature,  showed  a  methodological  gap  in  Cameroon  and  thus the author sought to fill this gap with this paper.
The study applied the two-gap model to answer the research question: what is the impact of foreign  aid  on  the  economic  growth  in  Cameroon.  The  methodological  approach  applied  the econometrics; stationarity test, Johansen cointegration test, VAR model and VECM on the time series data from 1970 to 2019.
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