农产品出口对厄瓜多尔农业增长的影响:以香蕉和可可为例

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论文字数:36566 论文编号:sb2021080810112936787 日期:2021-08-18 来源:硕博论文网
本研究考察了30年来香蕉和可可出口对厄瓜多尔农业经济增长的影响,并实施了新古典主义生产函数。向量自回归模型(VAR)、约翰森协整和误差修正建模方法。研究表明,农业出口影响厄瓜多尔农业部门的经济增长;它指的是,随着农业出口的增加,经济增长率上升。此外,研究还发现,香蕉和可可出口对经济增长具有重大和积极的影响。因此,描述性分析表明,厄瓜多尔的农业出口趋势呈现出增长模式,但随着时间的推移有所下降。还可以评估重要方面,如香蕉部门仍然是该国出口的领导者,占非石油出口的27%,产量相当大。
 
Chapter 1 Introduction

1.1 Background of the study
Ecuador has demonstrated the importance of the agricultural sector in the national economy and has been closely associated with periods of boom and crisis of its exports. The introduction in the international market started in 1880 with the cocoa boom, in which a 2.5 percent growth in GDP was achieved (World Trade Organization, 2014). For the last 16 years, the agricultural sector has grown irregularly at an average annual rate of 4.0 %. In the period 2000–2006, the average share of agricultural GDP was 8.6 percent, compared with 8.3 percent in 2007–2016. This decrease results from deficient public policy, private and foreign investment, modernization of farming, low productivity levels in agriculture. From 2003 to 2005, interannual growth was 5%, due to growth in commodity prices on the world market, investment, and consumption. Between  2006  and  2008,  the  growth  of  agricultural  GDP  shrank  from 4  to  1  %  (Banco Central del Ecuador, 2016). 
Exports of agricultural products have contributed on average with 30.6% of total exports in the period 2000-2006 with 29.7% in the 2007-2016 period. Agricultural exports have a lower level of stability than total exports; in 2014-2015, the increase was only 0.6%. The outlook was similar in 2016; it had a growth of 0.6% of the FOB value since the percentage of exportable tonnes fell by 2.7%. Total exports for the years 2015 and 2016 decreased by 16.320 million dollars, compared to the value of exports in 2014. In the same period, agricultural exports also decreased by USD 1.026 million (PROECUADOR, 2016). 
Banana and cocoa exports have generated very significant income for the country's economy; however, the international trade of this product is faced with current regulations that affect the development of the activity.  These  two  products  of  agricultural  activity  generate  direct  employment  are  approximately 100,000 producers. This chain occupies a preferred position in Ecuador's economic context, as food and beverage  manufacturing  is  a  crucial  activity  in  the  national  industry  (PROECUADOR,  2016).  The Ecuadorian banana is recognized worldwide for its quality; banana exports are the second largest income for the country.
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1.2 Problem statement
The impact of agricultural trade on economic growth has been a severe problem in the controversy over the analysis of international trade and development policies. Ecuador's agricultural exports sector mainly depended on agricultural products such as cocoa and banana. This productive sector had experimented with cycles of prosperity and periods of crisis derived from the low level of production and demand for the product. 
For these reasons, products in markets are non-stable in terms of volume and price, with high risk and uncertainty.  These  features  do  not  contribute  to  the  hypothesis  of  agricultural  exports  leading  to  the country's economic growth. The exports of primary goods compared with manufactured goods are less competitive on the world market. However, despite these unfavorable terms, the country's economy relies on  agricultural  exports,  but  its  impact  has  not  been  evaluated. This  study  will  deepen  the  knowledge related to cocoa and banana exports and lead to a better understanding of their economic impact. Given the agricultural sector's importance with the results of this study, it should be emphasized that developing countries are the ones that benefited. For the products being the object of this study, agricultural trade reforms  can  be  proposed,  and  export-enhancing  strategies  can  be  developed  to  find  agricultural  and economic development that can generate more income to benefit the state and the citizens.
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Chapter 2 Literature Review

2.1 Exports led growth overview
Economic growth is one of the indicators that require careful attention within the study of the economy since it can improve the population welfare. Exports encourage growth worldwide and contribute to the economy  of  developed  and developing  countries. The  second  country  category  should  be  emphasized because they are the most benefited by the exports of their products, exported mainly to countries with an industrial capacity to process these products; these countries are also referred to as countries of primary economies or specialized in the primary export. Scholars had recently paid attention to general phenomena that no real attention was given to exports-led growth (ELG). 
There is a long-standing discussion in both developed and developing economies about the relationship between  export  and  economic  growth. According  to  the  investigations  of  (Chenery  and  Strout,  1966, Michaely, 1977, Balassa, 1978, Tyler, 1981, Kavoussi, 1984, Shirazi and Manap, 2005, Kang, 2015), the hypothesis of export-led growth (ELG) is corroborated especially in developing countries. The Keynesian basis indicates the effect of the foreign trade multiplier on the increase in short-term exports.
The country can improve the use of international division labor by obtaining desired goods from abroad with considerable savings in inputs of productive factors and allowing efficient management of productive sectors  at  the  international  level  due  to  export  earnings  promote  the  country's  ability  to  import technologically capital goods. The development of exports also tends to concentrate investment in the most efficient sectors of the economy, as Keesing (1967) and Feder (1983) stated in their researches. In addition,  Krishna,  Mansfield  et  al.  (2012)  considered  a  critical  factor  in  increasing  production  and employment, and exports are also considered a key component of economic growth.
Figure 2-1 Conceptual framework
Figure 2-1 Conceptual framework
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2.2 Ecuadorian banana exports overview
During the last four decades, Ecuador's economic history has shown a clear comparative advantage in banana production. Banana production is one of the most efficient productive activities since it contributes directly to creating jobs and foreign exchange. The average annual production of 92 million tons depends primarily on two main aspects, natural resources and labor force; fortunately, both aspects of Ecuador are plentiful. This performance allows the domestic market to be supplied and marketed to countries in the rest  of  the  world  where  there  is  an  opportunity  for  demand  for  this  fruit. According  to  the  Food  and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (2007), Ecuador covers more than a third of the world's banana exports, selling between 80 and 85 million boxes, almost 40 percent of its total production.
Orozco  (2017)  argued  the  banana  boom  was  a  period  of  tremendous  export  growth  that  resulted  in prolonged sustained growth due to the tremendous commercial demand of the United States and Europe because the countries of Central America were experiencing an unfavorable climatic situation that is why it has become the world's largest banana exporter. Therefore, the GDP assessed at constant prices between 1948 and 1954 rose by 5.6 percent annually, between 1954 and 1965 by 4.8 percent, and between 1965 and 1970 by 5.2 percent. 
Fierro and Villacres (2014) concluded that the consolidation of Ecuador as one of the significant banana exporters on the world market in 1952 was made possible by the country's comparative costs remaining favorable to other suppliers the convergence of traditional socio-economic and ecological factors. Even though  only  three  exporters  controlled  80  percent  of  national  production,  this  has  given  way  to  its extensive  export  expansion.  Del  Cioppo  and  Salazar  (2015)  summarized  the  Ecuadorian  Banana production and exportation history, on his study mentioned the first "Boom" Banana Period comprised between 1948–1965 and a Second "Boom" Banana Stage highlighted by the increase in banana exports and  production  during  the  years  1985  and 1991.  On  these  stages,  the  export  trend was  ascending and stable experiencing a cycle defined by non-capitalist forms of production that prevailed in the agricultural sector. Around 1954 the participation in the American market was 50 to 80 percent; for the year 1964, Ecuador exceeded the customs Exporters covering 25% of the international supply.
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Chapter 3 Agricultural Economic Growth & Agricultural Trade In Ecuador ...................... 16
3.1 Agriculture in Ecuador ........................................... 16
3.1.1 Banana crops ................................. 17
3.1.2 Cocoa crops .............................. 19
Chapter 4 Research Methodology .................................... 34
4.1 Scope and limitation of the study .................... 34
4.2 Research target ........................................... 34
Chapter 5 Impact Analysis Of Agricultural Export On Agricultural Economic Growth In Ecuador ......................... 42
5.1 Descriptive analysis ................................. 42
5.2 Econometric analysis .............................. 43

Chapter 5 Impact Analysis Of Agricultural Export On Agricultural Economic Growth In Ecuador

5.1 Descriptive analysis
Before  providing  a  concise  econometric  analysis,  it  is  essential  to  provide  a  straightforward interpretation of the statistical analysis. The table results reflect the descriptive statistics and interpret that the  average  at  market  prices  of AGDP  is  5,238,226  miles  USD,  the  average  of Agricultural  capital formation is 179,659 miles USD. The mean value of the agricultural labor force 29.61 thousand people with a standard deviation of 0.351. The average banana export is 1,326,952 with a standard deviation of 143,353. During the period 1987-2000, bananas have been exported below their mean value. But there is a drastic increase over its mean value after this period rising to 2,084,750.
The average of cocoa exports is 222,608 miles USD with a standard deviation of 3,426. From 1987 to 2008, cocoa has been exported in Ecuador below its average export. Skewness is a measure of departure from symmetry; in this study, only the variable ALF is negatively skewed, while the rest of the variables are positively skewed or rightward skewed.
Table 5-1 Descriptive statistics
Table 5-1 Descriptive statistics
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Chapter 6 Conclusion & Recommendations

6.1 Conclusion
Agricultural  economic  growth  has  saved  the  rural  sector's  productivity  and  added  a  considerable amount of profits. Agricultural policies have provided assistance, but they have not resulted in completely positive  improvements.  However,  policymakers  must  determine  the  effectiveness  and  impact  of agricultural  value  chain  financing  on  economic  development.  Ecuador's  agricultural  exports  have remained positive, but at a lower grade than the country's overall exports. This research examines the effects of banana and cocoa exports on the agricultural economic growth in Ecuador over 30 years, and an augmented neoclassical production function was implemented. Vector autoregressive model (VAR), Johansen Cointegration and Error Correction modeling approach. 
The  study  suggests  that  agricultural  exports  impact  economic  growth  in  the  agricultural  sector  in Ecuador; it refers that economic growth rises with increasing agricultural exports. In addition, it is found that banana and cocoa exports have a significant and positive impact on economic growth. Therefore, the descriptive analysis has shown agricultural export trends in Ecuador present increasing patterns with some declines over time. It was also possible to evaluate essential aspects such as the banana sector remains the leader in the country's exports, accounting for 27% of non-oil exports, covering a significant quantity of hectares in output. 
reference(omitted)

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